Abstract
Observations on deep-sea cores demonstrate that late Pleistocene climate is dominated by three broad-band cycles centered near periods of 23 ky, 41 ky, and 100 ky. These cycles permeate the global system, and include changes in the atmosphere, cryosphere, surface ocean, and deep ocean. The periods of these climatic cycles match orbital cycles of precession, obliquity, and eccentricity; and each orbit-climate pair is significantly correlated (coherent). These observations may be explained in different ways. We review various models and conclude that the climatic cycles can be explained as an interaction between orbitally forced and internally driven oscillations of the climate system. Depending on the cycle and model, the external forcing may influence climate either as part of a driving mechanism which determines both the amplitude and phase of the cycle, or as a pacing mechanism which sets the phase of an internal oscillation. Our goal is to search climatic data for clues about the mechanisms which operate within the climate system on orbital time scales. Our strategy is patterned after previous investigations which partition the climatic record into cyclic components, record the phase of system responses in each cycle, and examine these phase sequences for clues about the chain of causal mechanisms.
We review the stratigraphic, chronologic, and statistical methods adopted to achieve these objectives, and then apply the strategy to two sets of data: (1) time series with local implications about conditions at the sea surface at 17 sites ranging from 54°N in the Atlantic to 44°S in the Indian Ocean (faunal estimatesof sea-surface temperature, SST); and (2) time series with global implications about ice volume and ocean chemistry (δ1 8, △δ1 3C, and Cd/Ca). The spatial pattern of SST response in each cycle is documented by mapping its amplitude and phase. each cycle has a characteristic pattern, but all cycles show an early response near 40°S. Information drawn form both data sets is then combined to form a preliminary phase portrait of the entire system. Ineach cycle, responses occur over a wide range of phases centered on the point of minimum ice, and include indicators which lead and those which lag ice volume. Each cycle is characterized by the same three leading indicatorial SST at 23 △δ1 3C, and SST 15 ~40°S (with the addition of equatorial SSt at 23 ky). Lagging indicators include North Atlantic SSt at 23 ky.
Data on SSt and δ1 8O phases are used to test simple models of radiation forcing in the 23 ky and 41 ky bands, and limited to explaining the observations of δ1 8O, and SSt near 54°N and 40°S. The simplest model that fits our data assumes that summer radiation forces the system in the Northern Hemisphere, and that the response at high latitudes is transmitted rapidly to the Southern Heimsphere by modulation of North Atlantic sources of deep water. In the 100 ky band we assume that the phase of an internally generated cycle is set by the amplitude of the 23 ky radiation cycle.
We conclude that the strategy developed here can guide the acpuisition of new data, serve as a framework for synthesizing information on different parts of the climate system, and stulate interactions between data and models. Opportunities now exist for comparing the predicted sequence of system responses with the observed sequence.
Authors listed alphabetically. No senior authorship implied.
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Imbrie, J., McIntyre, A., Mix, A. (1989). Oceanic Response to Orbital Forcing in the Late Quaternary: Observational and Experimental Strategies. In: Berger, A., Schneider, S., Duplessy, J.C. (eds) Climate and Geo-Sciences. NATO ASI Series, vol 285. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-2446-8_7
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